Edward Goeas is CEO of the Tarrance Group, one of the largest Republican-only polling firms in the country. The Tarrance Group is currently working on eight gubernatorial races, nine U.S. Senate races, and over 60 congressional races. Goeas spoke to the Georgetown Public Policy Review about the upcoming midterm elections and the future of the Republican Party.
Georgetown Public Policy Review (GPPR):
What are the chances that the Republicans will take the Senate in the upcoming midterm elections?
Edward Goeas (EG):
I think most people put it at a little better than even.
In terms of the Senate, the Republicans need to pick up six seats. You have three that are generally seen as moving from the Democratic column to the Republican column: West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota. There are three other races where the numbers are outside the margin of error: Alaska, Louisiana (although it may still go to a run-off), and Arkansas. There are two other races where the Republican candidate is showing a lead either at the margin of error or right outside of the margin of error: Colorado and Iowa. So that’s eight seats.
There’s a question mark on Kansas; most of the polling has it dead even at this point. Another question is whether Georgia will go to a run-off, although it still has the Republican candidate in the lead.
So if the Republicans win all eight and hold on to Kansas, you’re looking at 53 seats. But Kansas could easily go to either side and there could be run-offs in Louisiana and Georgia. That would mean that on election night, the Republican Party might be at 50 percent, but unknown if they will get the 51st seat.
If I had to bet my money today, I would say the Republican Party will be at 52 or 53 seats at the end of the electoral process.
GPPR:
Do you think that the Tea Party has seen its day as a force in the Republican Party, considering its losses in the latest primary elections?
EG:
The reality is that the Tea Party is a movement as opposed to a party, and I think that it gets incorrectly analyzed because of that. What you really have is a very large group of people—I would say at least a fifth of the electorate—that is somewhat dissatisfied with the direction the country is going and the depths of the involvement of the federal government in virtually every issue.
I don’t think this movement will go away quickly. In the future it may get called something else. Quite frankly the Tea Party of today is not that different from Ross Perot’s movement in the 1992 election. The Tea Party is comprised of the same type of voters, and many of the same issues are still there.
Now I don’t intend to justify the activist element of the Tea Party, but if working in policy, you understand that every issue goes through four stages: talk about the problem, talk about solutions, implement solutions, and that creates a new set of problems.
The frustration of the American public is that they realize how we keep going through these stages of problem solving, and very often they view elected officials as just dealing with problems created by their own solutions and not dealing with any new problems.
GPPR:
Looking beyond the upcoming midterm elections, what do you think will be the greatest challenge or strength of the Republican Party in 2016?
EG:
Well, there is a lot of interesting analysis of the electorate and what they are like and what the future is like. Basically, the way I look at the electorate is that about 5% are high-income, and, despite common doctrine, the upper income is pretty well split between the Democrats and the Republicans. Low-income Americans make up about 25% of the population, and they overwhelmingly vote for the Democratic Party. Finally the middle class makes up around 75% of the electorate whether you look at an economic definition or a self-perception definition, and the middle class is really what the two parties are fighting over. Republicans tend to win the middle class by a fairly hefty margin, but there are ebbs and flows in every election, depending on what issues are focused on. I think what you will see in the future is more and more focus on the middle class.
One thing I see deeply in the data is the question of whether or not the next generation will do as well as the present generation did economically. Almost 7 out of 10 voters today will say no. This raises not only issues about the middle class, but also a discussion about the American dream and the next generation. I think from this standpoint, the Republicans will be dealing from a position of strength, focusing on the broader electorate as opposed to the 20% of lower income Americans.
About Edward Goeas
Ed Goeas has been working for more than 35 years in politics and has been with the Tarrance Group since 1987. Mr. Goeas has worked on many Republican campaigns throughout his career and is a widely respected political strategist and consultant. His most recent success was demonstrated during the 2010 election cycle when the Tarrance Group helped elect 6 governors, 4 senators, and 53 congressmen. The Tarrance Group received the “Republican Pollster of the Year” award from the American Association of Political Consultants in 2010.
James Frkovich conducted the interview over the phone on October 17, 2014. The transcript has been edited for length and clarity.
James Frkovich is originally from Dana Point, California. As a Master of Public Policy Candidate at Georgetown University, he is interested in emerging markets, international trade, and economic development policy. Prior to graduate school, James was an infantry officer in the United States Marine Corps and deployed to Helmand, Afghanistan as an advisor to the Afghan Uniform Police. He received his Bachelor of Arts in International Relations at the University of San Diego.
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