Introduction
As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has entered its sixth month, one of the less talked-about outcomes of the conflict is the growing rapprochement between Russia and China and the implications of the entente that would challenge the hegemony of the U.S.-dominated liberal world order, both militarily and economically.
At the center of a growing struggle for global dominance is control of the Eurasian region, home to 70 percent of the world’s population. Western sanctions against Russia since its February invasion consequently put China in a position to dictate the terms of the bilateral relationship with Russia and secure greater access to Moscow’s military technology; in other words, a geo-entente not seen since the Sino-Soviet alliance at the start of the Cold War.
Can the U.S. simultaneously wage a proxy war in Ukraine against Russia while checking the global designs of China? China has yet to condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine and isn’t materially supporting Moscow. This, then, suggests the Red Dragon has already chosen sides in the conflict. But, what would happen if China – in the prophetic words of the 18th-century emperor – were to “shake the world,” moving to formalize its support of Russia in the current war? Can Western powers prevent China’s rise?
Sanctions draw Russia, China closer
The war in Ukraine threatens the post-Cold War global order as Russia and China grow closer in their economic and political alignment. The gravitational center of the world economy is shifting from the Atlantic to east of the Ural Mountains, the conventional 1,600-mile boundary between the regions of Europe and Asia.
The rise of China poses a lethal threat to neoliberal ideology and U.S. primacy. China has emerged as the planet’s greatest trading nation, challenging the long-held U.S. position – politically, economically and militarily.
Now, Russia and China are poised to break the American-controlled finance system for the first time in history, using “petro dollars” as leverage. The West’s thirst for petrol has increased as some countries put the pedal to the metal in their shift from coal and nuclear power. As much as one-third of Europe’s gas was being supplied by Russia. In response to invasion-spurred sanctions – including the European Union’s plan to cut gas imports from Russia by as much as two-thirds before the end of 2022 – Vladimir Putin’s administration has moved to require purchases of Russian energy in Russian rubles or gold, instead of the dollar or Euro. As a result, the Russian ruble has risen in value on global exchanges.
Even before the war in Ukraine, Russia announced a deepening of its energy ties with China, Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping signing an agreement to build two natural-gas pipelines capable of carrying a fifth of China’s gas imports. Alongside the energy pipeline, China agreed to build a $242 billion, 4,300-mile high-speed railway from Beijing to Moscow. More recently, as it made plans for the invasion of Ukraine, Russia agreed to a 30-year contract to supply gas to China via a new pipeline – a deal that will be settled in euros as a further deviation by the two countries to diversify away from U.S. dollars.
Sanctions have consequences, not only for those on the receiving end of the penalties, but also for those instituting the restrictions. In terms of strengthening Russia-China bonds, the February pipeline deal between the two countries, as well as the swerve from U.S. dollars, are examples of sanctions blowback. The consequences of Western sanctions have encouraged Russia’s deeper ties to China.
China and the challenge to the U.S.-led liberal order
The threat China poses to the U.S. global position is unlike any the U.S. has faced since the Cold War due to the nature, scale and size of China and its economy. Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google, notes that China will have a “bigger economy, more research and development investments, better research, wider deployment of new technologies, and stronger computing infrastructure” in the next ten years, unless trends change.
In his book, In the Shadows of the American Century: The Rise and Decline of US Global Power, historian Alfred McCoy contends that China’s ascension is different from that of previous great powers. China is not relying on building a blue-water navy like the British, or a global aerospace armada akin to America’s. Instead, McCoy offers, China’s attempt to reshape the geopolitical fundamentals of global power is focused on “using its cash reserves to reach deep within the world island to the heart of Eurasia,” a strategy, the authors adds, “that has so far eluded Washington’s power elites.” McCoy also notes that the scale of China’s growth exceeds that of the UK, U.S. and Japan in previous decades.
China is ambitiously seeking its place at the world order table, which is evidenced by its trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) proposition. The massive infrastructure program of railways, energy pipelines, highways and streamlined border crossings could expand the international use of Chinese currency and create as many as 50 special economic zones, turning the “middle of nowhere” into the center of the world economy.
The possibilities inherent in a stronger alliance between two traditional U.S. adversaries were on full display during a recent visit to Asia by U.S. President Biden. In response to Biden’s statement that the U.S. would intervene militarily if China were to invade or attack Taiwan, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin warned that China “has no room for compromise and concession” on core concerns like Taiwan and “will take firm action to safeguard its sovereignty and security interests.” The growing cooperation between Moscow and Beijing was further emphasized when the two countries took part in a joint military exercise, flying nuclear-capable bombers over the Sea of Japan and including naval vessels in the exercise mix.
Conclusion
China is a rising – if not already risen – global power. As important as Ukraine is perceived to be to U.S. interests, the bigger challenge for America lies outside the European theater. The future of U.S. global leadership will be forged in Asia.
The architecture of global governance is moving from an intermittent unipolar world to a multipolar world with different centers of power and multilateral security arrangements. The U.S. must be prepared to accommodate emerging powers and accept that it may not always control both ends of the vast Eurasian continent.
The future architecture of global governance – however uncertain – must look different from today’s mis-weighted and misguided rules. While transparency and democracy – individual rights, liberty, rule of law – in our international institutions are critical building blocks in reform, how does the U.S. navigate a changing landscape? The U.S. must return to the international stage through its meaningful and effective and inclusive participation on global committees and boards. The Brookings Institution suggests we put our own house in order as well, “restoring order and competence to domestic policies and politics.” This will contribute to the rebuilding of U.S. global participation and partnership.
Beyond today’s events in Ukraine, the next concern is China’s emergence as the largest economy in the world. Alongside its growing influence around the world is its modernization of its armed forces to accommodate its geopolitical ambitions. Alongside the modernization of its military is its flagship infrastructure project that would stretch from East Asia to Europe. Alongside its infrastructure project are emerging and powerful international collaboration projects, including the pipeline partnership renewed with Russia.
If China succeeds in creating additional innovative and game-changing infrastructure projects, expands its portfolio of international partnerships and continues to grow its economic power around the world, a seismic shift in global power takes place, or, as Sir Halford Mackinder predicted almost 120 years ago in his Geopolitical Pivot of History, “the empire of the world would be in sight.”
About the Author
Christopher Zambakari holds a Doctor of Law and Policy degree from Northeastern University and is chief executive officer of The Zambakari Advisory. He is a Hartley B. and Ruth B. Barker Endowed Rotary Peace Fellow, and the assistant editor of The Bulletin of the Sudan Studies Association. His area of research and expertise is international law and security, political reform and economic development, governance and democracy, conflict management and prevention, and nation- and state-building processes in Africa and in the Middle East. His work has been published in leading law, economic, and public policy journals.
Dr. Christopher Zambakari, MBA, MIS, LP.D.
Founder & CEO, The Zambakari Advisory
Hartley B. and Ruth B. Barker Endowed Rotary Peace Fellow
Assistant Editor, Bulletin of The Sudan Studies Association