Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protests resulting from China’s refusal to permit nominations for Hong Kong’s Chief Executive in 2017 amplified the widening ideological gap between Hong Kong and Mainland China. Richard C. Bush III, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and East Asia policy expert, spoke with the Georgetown Public Policy Review about Hong Kong’s democratic movement and its impact on US-China relations.
Georgetown Public Policy Review (GPPR): Under President Xi’s strong leadership, do you think China will step back and compromise on the Hong Kong democratic movement?
Richard Bush (RB): The leader of every nation needs to combine firm and soft political stances. If you are firm all the time, it is going to create problems, but if you are too soft all the time, that’s going to create problems as well. I think you need vigor and you need to base your response on the circumstances and situations. The circumstances in Hong Kong may need a creative approach.
GPPR: Many people in Mainland China believe that Chinese economic and political policies help Hong Kong boost its economy, whereas many Hong Kong people believe the policies deteriorate its economy. Do you think after the reversion, Chinese policies reduce or exacerbate the inequality of Hong Kong?
RB: I think it is a combination of both. One of the Chinese solutions is to allow tourists from Mainland China to come to Hong Kong. This policy causes a negative impact since the interactions between the tourists and Hong Kong people are not always good.
I also think inequality stems from several different factors. The policy from the Beijing government, over some periods, benefits certain groups but not others, and creates a certain kind of inequality. The political system Hong Kong establishes protects the interest of the property and banking sectors. It does’t allow for a political system where the interest of the middle class can be well represented.
GPPR: If China allows democratic election to take place in Hong Kong, would a more democratic system solve the inequality itself?
RB: There is a possibility that this would happen. Some [democratic] systems don’t do that, even though they should. Look at our system, the inequality is getting worse. I believe a good democracy system can promote growth whereas a dysfunctional one can hurt growth badly. I think Hong Kong is capable of building a good democracy system. The system could help promote the growth of Hong Kong by ensuring that the growth of benefits is widely and reasonably distributed.
GPPR: China may fear that the democratic movement in Hong Kong can trigger same democratic requirement from people in Mainland China, how could the Beijing government overcome this fear?
RB: That’s something to learn over time. But China needs to find mechanisms to address the power abuse of local officials. An anti-corruption campaign is one of them, but there are other ways. Perhaps the democracy in Hong Kong will be successful in addressing these underlying issues, making it more attractive to Chinese leaders as a way to improve Chinese governance. It is a long-term thing, but I recognize the dilemma.
GPPR: Do you think Hong Kong protesters need to cease and make an effort to compromise with the Chinese government?
RB: The Hong Kong and Beijing governments should clarify ways that the system of selecting the Chief Executive by universal suffrage could be improved. If the system can be improved and perfected in certain ways that allow for more a democratic election, it will improve the trust and confidence for people from the democratic side in Hong Kong.
GPPR: The protestors in Hong Kong have been asking for international support, especially from the U.S. and the UK. Do you think the US’ support may negatively affect China-US relationship, which is now entering a critical phase?
RB: President Xi Jinping recently said that foreign countries should not try to interfere with Chinese domestic affairs. President Obama said that the U.S. believes Hong Kong people have the right to elect their leader. Therefore, at least in terms of statements, we’ve made them before; we are continuing to do so. But in terms of the kind of interference that China seems to be really afraid of, we haven’t done it and we are not going to do that. I think that the Chinese government can tolerate our statements.
GPPR: Do you think it’s in the US’ interest to promote democracy in Hong Kong?
RB: For Hong Kong, what the United States wants is clear from our statements. What we actively do to promote those goals is another question. As President Obama said, it’s up to people in Hong
Kong (and Beijing of course). My personal view of why we would like to see a democratic Hong Kong is that it can demonstrate that ethnic Chinese people are capable of a democratic system that is representative, stable, and effective – and that therefore the same thing is possible in China as a whole. That’s not to delegitimize Chinese rule but to encourage political reform. And democracy is not inconsistent with the spirit of what Chinese leaders say they want.
About Richard C. Bush III
Bush is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, holds the Chen-Fu and Cecilia Yen Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies, and is director of its Center for East Asia Policy Studies (CEAP). He also holds a joint appointment as senior fellow in the Brookings John L. Thornton China Center. Richard Bush’s two-decade public service career spans Congress, the intelligence community and the U.S. State Department. He currently focuses on China-Taiwan relations, U.S.-China relations, the Korean peninsula and Japan’s security. He is the author of, among other works, Uncharted Strait: The Future of China-Taiwan Relations, A War Like No Other: The Truth About China’s Challenge to America, Untying the Knot: Making Peace in the Taiwan Strait and At Cross Purposes: U.S.-Taiwan Relations Since 1942.
Xiang Li interviewed Richard Bush III in person on November 13, 2014 at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, D.C., and over e-mail on November 14, 2014.
Xiang Li is a first year student at the McCourt School of Public Policy.
Democracy is not going to work in Hong Kong. If that system is established, chaos of lawlessness will happen as evidenced by the recent Occupy Central event. Different political parties would do like what those Occupy protesters did to press for their demands, resulting in the paralysis of the society. Even USA government proclaims that it does not interfere into the Occupy event, its pseudo government partners and organizations did interfere into the event.