In the world’s never-ending quest for energy resources, the radioactive chemical element thorium has become more than a curiosity. Following calls from the nuclear science community for renewed investigation into thorium’s potential as a source of nuclear energy, a number of states, China foremost among them, have begun funding thorium research in earnest. Thorium’s theoretical prospects for providing relatively low-cost and considerably safer nuclear energy are bright indeed, and significantly, both the United States and China are believed to possess substantial quantities of this element. Although not a rare earth itself, thorium is often refined as a by-product of rare earths extraction following the mining of the mineral monazite, and given the friction between the U.S. and China relating to rare earths (culminating, for now at least, in litigation at the World Trade Organization), one might expect that thorium would be another arena in the ongoing competition between the world’s greatest power and its rising competitor. In fact, something very different has happened: a remarkable degree of cooperation has arisen between the two nations, with the U.S. actively supporting Chinese research and development.
Beijing recently tasked the Chinese Academy of Sciences, a state entity, with developing a workable design for a thorium-powered nuclear power plant within the next ten years (an acceleration of a previous 25-year schedule), and researchers involved on the project have reported facing “war-like” pressure to meet this goal. The project, dubbed “the world’s largest national effort on thorium,” currently employs 430 scientists and engineers, has plans to expand to 750 by next year, sports a budget of $350 million, and is headed by Jiang Mianheng, the son of former Chinese President Jiang Zemin (perhaps underlining the political implications of the project). Although the Chinese effort is officially said to be aimed at curbing pollution through the use of a new, cleaner energy source, thorium “could be used to power Chinese navy surface warships, including a planned fleet of aircraft carriers,” and provide the reactor reliability and safety necessary to improve China’s nuclear submarine fleet.
For its part, the U.S. abandoned thorium research in the 1970s in favor of a laser-like focus on uranium as a nuclear energy source. American efforts up to that point had actually been successful in creating the first thorium-powered reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, but the world’s newfound interest in thorium does not, at first glance, seem to have spurred Washington to dust off its previous research and retake its commanding lead in this burgeoning field of nuclear science. Attempts to push thorium onto the agenda at the federal level have fallen flat: an effort in 2009 by then-Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) to push the U.S. Department of Defense towards thorium research went nowhere, as did 2010 a bipartisan Senate bill to direct the U.S. Department of Energy to fund thorium research.
Washington’s reluctance to invest in thorium research and development has been chalked up to satisfaction with the uranium-based status quo, but perhaps the federal government’s budgetary problems play a role: the sequester, for instance, reduced the budgets of agencies that fund research and development by anywhere from 5.1% to 7.3%. Whatever the reason for its domestic difficulties, American thorium research has found a surprising new home in China. Specifically, as part of an agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy to share thorium research, the Chinese Academy of Sciences has been given the plans to the reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
This level of collaboration is particularly surprising given the commodity involved and the nature of the enterprise. Although the protocol governing the agreement has provisions for sharing important breakthroughs with the international scientific community and prohibiting military or weapons-related research, information used for commercial purposes is excluded from any required sharing and is free of any restrictive conditions. And, frankly, it is highly doubtful that any mechanism for enforcing the prohibition on military research is realistic. Thus, China will have the opportunity to achieve a commercially dominant position in thorium development and investigate thorium’s potential to upgrade its military capabilities without the U.S. deriving a benefit from either, leading some commentators to wonder exactly what is in it for Washington.
While this agreement seems like a no-strings-attached gift to Beijing, what are the U.S.’s motives for participating in this venture? What might it expect to gain? There are possible answers, but they require some assumptions. First, we must suppose that American decision-makers have determined that thorium is not, as some have argued, a quick and easy path to American energy independence, and that it would not be cost-effective, at least in the short term, for American nuclear efforts to transition to thorium research. Given federal budget limitations, then, the benefits of using federal dollars to pursue thorium as an energy source appear to be limited at this time. We must also suppose that those same decision-makers may see significant long-term promise in thorium as a source of nuclear energy. A reasonable case could therefore be made that research in this potentially important but non-priority field should be shared with those who are willing to expend the resources to advance the field.
With these suppositions in place, rational (though speculative) motivations and possible benefits become clearer. Although the U.S. might have been expected to share its thorium research with privately-owned American corporations and perhaps allied states rather than with a strategic competitor (and maybe it has), the significant scientific and engineering obstacles and the resulting high cost of developing thorium-powered reactors may require the sort of long-term commitment and resources that only another world power, like China, can provide. Since the U.S. is believed to possess one of the world’s largest deposits of thorium, it may want China to assume the short-term risk and attendant expenditure of resources with the intention of cashing in on its large reserves when (or if) China’s research turns thorium into a commercially viable energy resource.
Concerns about China’s state-owned enterprises holding a significant head start once commercial viability is reached are perhaps assuaged by a thoroughgoing belief in the dynamism of the American private sector to quickly catch up. Additionally, as noted above, China’s interest in thorium is, officially speaking, driven by environmental concerns. China’s difficulties with greenhouse gases and other forms of air pollution are well known, and the thorium cooperation agreement could be seen, from an American perspective, as dovetailing with the U.S.’s own efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
While successful development of thorium into a practical large-scale energy source remains far off, China has sprinted to the front of the pack, and it has done so with American assistance. Washington policymakers may recognize thorium’s promise and could be waiting for a more politically opportune time for the U.S. itself to seize upon it, but by facilitating China’s thorium research efforts, the U.S. appears to be betting that it can capitalize on Chinese breakthroughs down the road. In so doing, the U.S. risks missing the boat, or worse, seeing Chinese research go in unfavorable directions. Thorium could prove to be an incredible, world-changing upgrade over existing energy sources, or it could prove to be a dead end; either way, the U.S. has handed over its research regarding this poorly-understood radioactive chemical element to a strategic competitor with very little idea about what that competitor may discover. How this plays out may color the global energy marketplace for years to come.
Matthew J. Strabone is an attorney.
Thank you for the illuminating article, but a few points if I may:
“Development of thorium into a practical large-scale energy source” does not “remain far off”. Not by a long shot. American scientists and engineers are quite capable of resuming our nation’s work on thorium-fueled Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs.) The R&D at Oak Ridge back in the day was a stunning success that logged 20,000 hours of trouble-free operation. The corrosion issues that did exist were minor, and are easily solved with today’s advanced metallurgy and computer simulation.
We put a man on the moon in less than 10 years, and we did it with slide rules. But now, with a government so dysfunctional that we can’t even name a post office, we’ve tossed the thorium ball to China. They will be patenting every advance they make, and selling our own technology back to us.
This is our Sputnik Moment, and we’re blowing it.
We already know how to make thorium work for humanity, the problem is how the U.S. legislative branch currently operates.
This is quite interesting. Perhaps the greater good of combating pollution is driving the cooperations between the countries in this case.
Excellent article and excellent comment from Mike Conley.
It should be added that we have a shortage of nuclear reactor engineers and researchers thanks to the anti-nuclear movement that has prevailed for the past thirty years.
It should also be noted that venture capital is not inclined to make long term risky investments. They prefer short term quick returns. Do not expect private enterprise to be able to develop thorium powered molten salt reactors in the United States. Mariana Mazzucato, in her book “The Entrpreneurial State: Debunking Public vs. Private Sector Myths” does a nice job of documenting how it has been mainly the national labs that propelled the U.S. in the area of technological advances. Without the national labs working on thorium powered MSR’s it is highly doubtful the U.S. will be able to catch up to China. It is even doubtful that the NRC would allow us to buy thorium MSR’s from China.
The U.S. made a choice to go with sodium cooled fast breeder reactors (IFR) for its Gen IV reactor design during the Nixon administration. The Clinton administration shut the program down. Russia has gone ahead with IFR and now has a 800 MW commercial version (BN-800). http://rt.com/news/188332-mox-nuclear-fuel-production/
In addition Russia recently allocated $26 billion for a new atomic energy complex. http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140609/190441934/Russia-to-Allocate-26-Billion-to-Atomic-Energy-Complex.html
I think you have analyzed this situation correctly but from a false premise. This nuclear research is NOT about thorium. Thorium will never be a valuable commodity because there is way too much and it can be found in most countries. This nuclear research is about a molten salt reactor technology which holds the promise of cheaper safer nuclear energy. You are correct but no one says, “The US government knows that we no longer have the financial resources and political will to do longer term high dollar research projects. So we might as well give away our national research for the good of the world because we can no longer do the research”.
My hope is that the Chinese develop a lower-cost safe molten salt reactor and build them by the 100’s. Giving away nuclear research may be the most realistic way the fight global warming. Much better than hoping developing countries will use renewables (unreliable).
The US government is using the same logic to develop the Integral Fast Reactor by helping South Korea design their fast reactor. The DOE has contracted for the fast reactor design just recently. Implicit in fast reactor use is a type of reprocessing called pyro-processing. It is ironic that the DOE is helping South Korea to develop a fast reactor and pyro-processing while at the same time the state department is trying to negotiate a treaty limiting South Korea’s ability to reprocess spent nuclear fuel.
Have I mentioned that my government is somewhat dis-functional?
I am sure you did not intend the following as literal “The US government is using the same logic”… The U.S. government is incapable of using or applying logic to anything. jim
Your government is … you. Or, at least you and your fellow citizens. I suppose there is a random element in what leaders pop up (or don’t), but there is something to Rousseau’s famous quote ‘people get the government they deserve’.
I agree with your major sentiment … I would love for the Chinese or the Koreans to develop thorium or fast uranium reactors. We will most definitely not ‘lose’ from that. It will either get us off our asses and develop it ourselves or we can buy it from them. And, I don’t think the billions still languishing in poverty will mind either.
What surprised me is not that china is suddenly interested in this Arena, but how stupidly US signed away the IP rights to something that could potentially be the source of all energy in the world in a few decades. Also, why did US incline towards China even though India has 50 year head start in this area ? What does that say about Indian-American relations ? Sound to me like America that girl who goes home to a boring husband who she admires for his high democratic values but secretly sleeps with a military guy who beats her and has psychopathic tendencies ?
The US didn’t sign away anything. The work that was done in the 60’s was rescued from oblivion by a young Scientist at NASA and he made it generally available. There is useful information, but any major government could get caught up on this if they chose (just most are not choosing). India has its own long-term plan to use thorium … that dates back to the 1950’s … a 3-stage process that seems a bit complicated. There does seem to be some interest in India on the molten-salt approach just recently. India has plenty of Physicists (and maybe can get some to come back from the West). There is NOTHING stopping them … if they want, they could just get on with it.
Mr. Strabone –
I agree with the thoughtful comments above. If I may, your first assumption you list is patently false. I am not accusing you or being belligerent in any way. I am simply reminding the readers that a Th-based molten salt reactor was run for >20,000 hrs and at a far higher temperature (~850°C) than is typically considered practical here in 2014 (about 700°C). It would also perhaps make you chuckle that this was done with no computers.
Secondly, diligent work has been done with some of the best simulation software packages out there (google MCNP or SCALE, of which I am familiar with both and have a license for the latter). Every single daughter nuclide has been examined. This means we as a community have voluntarily analyzed the neutronics, chemistries and nuclear physics for every isotope in the Th motlen salt system.
Third, for a one-fluid reactor, all technical challenges have either been solved in the late 1960s or have been solved recently by our small but strident community of chemical physicists, materials scientists and chemists. I can give you a paper hat my team and I recently published, if you’d like, to this effect and point you toward many other papers addressing these very issues.
To comment on one of your final points you make in your thoughtful piece, entrepreneur solid-state Ph.D. chemists who specialize in fluoride salts (like myself) ARE SIMPLY NOT PERMITTED to do any research on these systems. Frankly, we face the five-pronged challenges of 1) Federal reduction of legal thorium limits to $100k in NRC application fees 2) Near zero interest from the VC or other private-investment communities, due explicitly to the vagaries of the Federal position, as well as the explicit impasse in Congress regarding intelligent Rare Earth Element (ergo, Thorium management) industries and 4) the explicit policy of the NRC against any thorium research (I have spoken to them myself) and 5) the Congress and DoD turning a blind eye to the repeated violation of the Jones Act, the Berry Amendment, the Buy America Act, not to mention countless violations of ExIm Bank License Control violations for classified components (avionics that all require Rare Earth Elements, but are illegally sourced from offshore). This stems from a dearth of so-called “heavy rare earths” used in advanced electronic equipment because we have no national Thorium repository, like the one Jim Kennedy and John Kutsch have proffered in their SR2006 Bill they recently introduced in the Senate. To have a Rare Earth industry in the U.S., you have to have a thorium management policy.
I would be honored and happy to explain these positions, the chemistry and the physics in greater detail if you are interested. Please email me at your convenience.
Regards,
Stephen A. Boyd, Ph.D.
Hello Stephen, I am not the author but I am curious about what you say. You tell us that the author’s first assumption is patently false. As I read the article, the author’s first assumption is, “First, we must suppose that American decision-makers have determined that thorium is not, as some have argued, a quick and easy path to American energy independence, and that it would not be cost-effective, at least in the short term, for American nuclear efforts to transition to thorium research.”
Stephen, can you tell us what is false about this statement? Are you saying that U.S. decision makers believe thorium actually IS all of those things the author lists? This does not appear to be the case given what you write later in your comment about the challenges you face. Maybe you are saying that others, such as the scientific community, believe thorium is all of these things. If that if what you are saying, I do not see a contradiction in the piece and in your comments–the author is just pointing out that U.S. decision makers have not reached the same conclusions you have.
John D: It is nice to see Thorium taken seriously for a change. Alvin Weinberg , who invented all the standard Uranium LWR plant designs, thought they were completely unsuitable for civilian power, for all the reasons that any “sustainable ” fan would produce, but he also thought that the Thorium LFTR would be just fine.
The writer needs to do some homework. For starters, the NRC is obtusely determined that only Uranium is of interest for nuclear uses, even though the supply is limited, whereas Thorium is too cheap to be worth fighting about. The NRC, for secretive reasons, has failed in its duty to produce . rules about the treatment of Thorium waste (from Rare Earth mines), thereby stifling both the multi billion dollar US RE mining efforts, but also preventing any serious work on LFTRs. Furthermore, it seems that NO US money is required to make Thorium happen, as the bill S2006 referred to was to enable a sort of Thorium Cooperative, open to and funded by any interested parties, as well as the US , (if we woke up) For more details on all this , see the Thorium Energy Alliance website. Since the Chinese have pretty much established themselves a Rare Earth mining monopoly, you can be sure that there are plenty of countries, like Japan, that have already shown in interest in this. And the cost is not that great either. But, unfortunately, our Congress must allow it, and even though it won’t cost the taxpayers a dime, it has so far been sabotaged. Most recently by, you’ll never guess, our Defense Department. A 25 year major scandal, so far unnoticed by the media. (I mean , our total military is and has been totally dependent on Chinese controlled companies for the RE elements that enable our weapons to function. Strictly illegal, but of course wonderfully profitable for the MIC.)
Anon: Rare Earths are not rare. China has been selling them cheap. The minute they raise the price, or attempt to use this for influence, the rest of the World (including us) will produce plenty. You can learn this in any number of places.
Here is a quick Google result: http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/07/22/big-surprise-rare-earths-arent-rare/
So we are not ‘totally dependent’ … stop worrying.
Oh, and the NRC is not ‘evil’ or secretive, it’s just conservative. In the US the concern is about safety to the exclusion of practically anything else. It’s just part of a very risk-averse culture in the developed West. We’ve got it good, and we are not up to taking chances any more. That is why China is where it is happening. And, even there they aren’t the cowboys we used to be. I think the SR-71 Blackbird was developed in 18 months.
Stephen: is your paper available online? You know, people used to say ‘Go West, young man’. I hate to say it, but have you thought about ‘going East’? I don’t know how the Chinese would react, but if you really want to do this, you could ask if they are interested in your services, and go work on thorium somewhere where they care (of course, I’ve also heard that the Chinese approach to Science is very hierarchical, and a bit stifling … you might not enjoy that).
Great job Mike,
As I am sure you realize, the dirty little secret is that the DoE has transferred MSR technology to China despite its obvious “dual use” capabilities and applications. This is a crime against our Nation and everyone who ever served this Nation.
Regarding the economic resource hypothesis, as you know Thorium is so freaking abundant that it will never become an economic commodity (unless the entire world moves to Thorium based energy — and then it will only be a low cost commodity).
A rising tide LFTRs all boats
Oh wise up, eh. Your U.S. gov’t is now giving the Thorium technology that they got from German Jews and Nazis during WWII to China and suppressing it’s use in the U.S. for the same reason everything else now winds up in China. The people who really run the world have ‘moved on’ to make China the next global empire superpower.
steve h.
toronto, canada
http://www.homemovies.ca
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