Remember when the media buried Newt Gingrich? So do I. In fact, my hippocampus is still recovering from having to process his now famous press release a second time:
“The literati sent out their minions to do their bidding. Washington cannot tolerate threats from outsiders who might disrupt their comfortable world. The firefight started when the cowardly sensed weakness. They fired timidly at first, then the sheep not wanting to be dropped from the establishment’s cocktail party invite list unloaded their entire clip, firing without taking aim their distortions and falsehoods. Now they are left exposed by their bylines and handles. But surely they had killed him off. This is the way it always worked. A lesser person could not have survived the first few minutes of the onslaught. But out of the billowing smoke and dust of tweets and trivia emerged Gingrich, once again ready to lead those who won’t be intimated by the political elite and are ready to take on the challenges America faces.”
Epic. And just possibly prophetic. Witness the most recent national CBS/New York Times poll, in which (despite the best efforts of the aforementioned sheep) Gingrich is now running third behind Herman Cain and Mitt Romney with 10% of the vote. Hopelessly mixed metaphors notwithstanding, this should not be that surprising. After all, despite his obvious flaws Gingrich has some enduring strengths as a candidate. Consider the following:
Strength No. 1: The man can talk.
In the aftermath of the Perry supernova, the importance of this particular quality should not be overlooked. Unlike Henry, I don’t believe that Perry stands much of a chance at this point, for the simple reason that his biggest weakness is not something he is capable of addressing. Perry’s inability to string two sentences together cannot be overlooked, and no matter how much they may dislike Obama most Republicans recognize that he is a skilled debater who will not be defeated by an incompetent opponent. Gingrich, on the other hand, has turned in several strong debate performances, and anyone who listens to him for more than 30 seconds quickly realizes that he is both articulate and well-versed in the major issues. Besides Romney, he is the only member of the Republican field who could plausibly go toe-to-toe with the President.
Strength No. 2: He’s legit.
The meteoric rise of Herman Cain would appear to cast doubt on the assumption that a Presidential nominee must have substantial prior governmental experience. However, this is almost certainly misleading. Despite Cain’s recent surge in the polls, the odds of the American people electing a political neophyte to the Presidency are still slim to none, which is why the other candidates are still not taking Cain that seriously. As a former Speaker of the House, Gingrich has a resume that speaks for itself. Moreover, unlike some of the other candidates (Santorum, Bachman, etc.) Newt is a genuinely national figure, with connections and contacts in every corner of the country. His rolodex may be a bit out of date, but it’s still huge, and recent reports suggest his fundraising has accelerated in recent weeks.
Strength No. 3: He has credibility on the budget and the economy.
As everyone knows, this election will be about the economy and (to a lesser extent) the massive deficits of recent years. Like Bill Clinton, Gingrich is associated with a golden age of small deficits and huge job numbers, and regardless of whether or not he really deserves the credit for this it makes for a good talking point. Of all the candidates, only Perry has a better story to tell about jobs.
Strength No. 4: He will say literally anything in order to get himself elected.
Or unelected, for that matter. I have to admit the sheep thing gives me pause, although it’s impossible to know whether Gingrich signed off on that directly.
In any event, much like the 2008 McCain campaign the 2012 Gingrich campaign imploded so early in the race that there was ample time for the candidate to recover and change the subject. In a different year, Newt would probably never get the second chance he now has, but as we all know this is no ordinary election.
So, to review: The race remains highly fluid, and most Republicans still don’t want to nominate Romney. They don’t really want to nominate Cain (though they are still in the process of figuring this out), and at this point they probably don’t want to nominate Rick Perry either. This means there’s a small (but real) opening for someone like Gingrich to make a move in the coming weeks, if only he can find the right way to take advantage of it.
Hey, the clip’s empty, right?
Established in 1995, the Georgetown Public Policy Review is the McCourt School of Public Policy’s nonpartisan, graduate student-run publication. Our mission is to provide an outlet for innovative new thinkers and established policymakers to offer perspectives on the politics and policies that shape our nation and our world.
Gingrich has no campaign apparatus though. And while the Presidential general election debates have huge audiences, barely anyone watches the primary debates (about 5 million people – not republican voters).
Points well taken, Jon. Nobody’s saying Gingrich is the favorite (for the record, I think Romney has by far the best chance). That said, the anti-Romney vote has to go somewhere, and while it’s true that Gingrich doesn’t have squat in terms of campaign apparatus, neither does Cain.
As for the debates, I think they matter a bit more than you suggest. Bachman’s surge was sparked by a strong debate performance. And Perry’s nose-dive was entirely a consequence of his poor debate performances. People may not watch the debates, but they do hear about them second-hand, and a breakthrough performance by Gingrich could be just the launching pad he needs.
In the end, the the odds are against any individual candidate, but one of them still has to win…