The dynamics of American politics are different from those of other leading democracies in ways that many Americans fail to appreciate. Take Herman Cain, for example. Six months ago, no one had ever heard of the man; yet last week he won the Presidential straw poll in Florida, and this week the Washington-Post released a poll giving him 24% in the Florida primary. In a recent national CBS poll, Mr. Cain was tied with Mitt Romney at 17%, while Rick Perry trailed both candidates with just 12%.
Mr. Cain is, in nearly every regard, a shining example of the entrepreneurial nature of American politics. In many European countries what he has accomplished thus far would be downright impossible. After all, becoming the prime minister of a country like Germany or France requires decades of intra-party politicking, dues-paying, and ladder-climbing, not to mention a successful parliamentary election and a stable governing coalition. For a man with virtually no political experience to become prime minister would be unthinkable. Yet in America, it seems, anything is possible.
Well, almost anything. Unfortunately for him, there are still myriad reasons to doubt Mr. Cain’s candidacy, and his continued ascendance in the polls says as much about the weaknesses of the Republican field as it does about Mr. Cain himself. Now that Chris Christie is out of the picture, the Republican race has returned to its by-now-familiar state of dynamic equilibrium, with Mitt Romney squaring off against an increasingly resigned Republican base still in search of a champion.
Mr. Cain would be that champion, and on the surface there is plenty to like if you are a Republican primary voter. He has private sector experience and a knack for pithy slogans. Contrary to popular perception, he does have a whiff of government experience, having served as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas. But he is a hard-money type (unlike that treasonous Ben Bernanke!).
Despite the candidate’s qualities, however, there is less to the Cain Train than meets the eye. Long before the first televised debate, would-be Republican contenders were engaged in a struggle for money, staff, and endorsements – a process often referred to as the “invisible primary.” Mr. Romney dominated this process, raising more money than any other candidate and attracting some of the most talented staffers on the Republican side of the aisle. Mr. Cain’s presence (if indeed he had any) was little noted.
The debates are now well underway, yet the invisible primary continues apace, and behind the scenes Herman is still getting creamed by Mitt. Regardless of his grassroots appeal, top donors and political heavy weights remain unconvinced that Cain can defeat Obama. His surge in the polls has been driven by his pugnacity on the stump, but there is no organization or coherent strategy to back it up. Indeed, he has barely even been to Iowa or New Hampshire.
The challenge for Cain is to translate his high name ID and overwhelmingly positive image into something more tangible – and quick. At some point soon, the visible and invisible primaries will become one and the same, as real money is deployed to ramp up ad-buys, field staff, and events in the critical states. Once this happens, the weaknesses of the Cain organization will become apparent and will begin to be reflected in the polls. If he hopes to win, Mr. Cain needs to close this gap before doing so becomes impossible.
Even by the standards of American politics, it is truly remarkable that this far into primary season there is still room for someone like Herman Cain to have an impact. I suspect that if you asked the average Republican voter why Cain should be President (as opposed to any of the other thousands of former CEOs in America) they would not have a particularly compelling answer beyond, effectively ”Hey, he’s on TV!” But as Woody Allen famously said, 90% of life is just showing up.
So there he is, commanding his podium like a modern-day Douglas MacArthur, thundering away in staccato bursts of tightly packaged right-wing bromides, comparing himself to “black walnut” ice cream and proposing tax reforms that would make Barry Goldwater blush. Like Caesar, Herman came, saw, and conquered the 30-second response format. So who cares if there’s a bit too much cheese? So what if his dish isn’t that deep!? This is America! We choose our own toppings.
Established in 1995, the Georgetown Public Policy Review is the McCourt School of Public Policy’s nonpartisan, graduate student-run publication. Our mission is to provide an outlet for innovative new thinkers and established policymakers to offer perspectives on the politics and policies that shape our nation and our world.