The current Russo-Ukrainian War began on Feb. 24, 2022 when Russian forces invaded Ukraine in violation of international law. Soon thereafter, the United States and more than 45 other allies began sending aid. Total American aid to Ukraine currently stands at over $70 billion, many times greater than the level provided to America’s next highest recipient in this period. Yet, more than 18 months since the war began, this bloody conflict shows no sign of ending. Thus, even though there is no doubt as to the legitimacy of Ukrainian actions and the illegitimacy of Russian aggression, there comes a point when policymakers must reassess the value of providing additional support for Ukraine.
From the outset, Ukraine faced an uphill battle in opposing Russian aggression. Russia is the largest country in the world by landmass, whereas Ukraine is 48th and possesses less than five percent as much land. Russia’s population is more than three times the size of Ukraine’s, eclipsing the latter by roughly 100,000,000 people. In terms of active-duty military personnel, the two are slightly more evenly matched, with Russia supporting well over one million soldiers and Ukraine supporting up to 700,000. However, economically, Russia’s $4.1 trillion GDP in 2021 greatly outmatched Ukraine’s $535 billion GDP from that same year.
The United States has provisioned Ukraine with state of the art anti-armor, air defense, and surveillance systems in addition to munitions. It has helped support the Ukrainian economy and provided humanitarian aid in the face of moderate Ukrainian corruption. Were it not for this aid, Kyiv surely would have fallen by this point in time. Yet, Russia is prepared to spend over $1 trillion on the war, largely financed through its tax dollars, while receiving support from China and North Korea. The war is thus still expected to wage on for some time, despite the already generous foreign aid to Ukraine.
These hard facts exist even before accounting for Russia’s weapons manufacturing, nuclear umbrella, and UN Security Council vote. It is also worth noting that the war is being fought on Ukrainian territory, not Russian territory. Additionally, while allies seek to aid Ukraine, many of them, such as Germany, Italy and the Netherlands, are dependent upon Russian oil, gas and natural resources to support their own economies.
The United States is committed to the principles of liberty, freedom and human rights. It supports territorial sovereignty, stands on the side of democracies and opposes Russian aggression. This is demonstrated by the more than $70 billion the U.S. has already spent aiding Ukraine, in addition to the sanctions that it has placed on Russia. Yet, a recent poll showed that most Americans oppose more aid to Ukraine. This stands in contrast to the Biden administration’s August 2023 funding request for an additional $24 billion to Ukraine, which is opposed by many House Republicans.
The moral cost of decreasing aid to Ukraine may at first seem stark; it includes the possibility of diminished deterrence and loss of human life. Yet, another way of viewing this situation is that the United States has been willing to spend nearly 100 billion dollars to support Ukraine, a struggling non-NATO state, in the face of a much larger rival over a sustained period of time with funds, food, training and munitions. This is a message that America’s allies can understand, particularly if the United States continues providing substantial, albeit more measured, aid.
Foreign aid is a drop in the bucket of American federal spending. However, with the U.S. debt to GDP ratio at well over 100 percent, every drop counts. According to research from the Council on Foreign Relations, American aid to Ukraine is several times larger than aid levels to the next five largest recipients combined. Such aid is already nearly double the previous 60-year high, measured as a percent of GDP, that Israel received after signing the Camp David Peace Accords. What is more, if unchecked, American aid to Ukraine could drift further out of control, as was the case during previous wars.
Increased spending abroad impacts spending at home. While tens of billions of dollars may seem small in the face of the colossal size of the federal budget, this is federal money that, in theory, could instead be spent on SNAP, TANF, Medicare and Medicaid. For example, U.S. aid to Ukraine is already approaching .5 percent of GDP, which is more than the NASA budget and larger than the annual budgets of most U.S. states. Total aid to Ukraine is also several times larger than the $16.5 billion basic federal TANF budget and nearing the size of the $120 billion federal SNAP budget for FY 2022.
So long as federal funding is finite, the fiscal ship will ultimately run aground if a responsible course is not charted. Ukraine is and must remain both a budget priority and a moral priority. However, funding for Ukraine does not exist in a vacuum and policymakers would be wise to better weigh the true cost of maintaining recent funding levels for Ukraine against the likely benefits.
Image source: Oleksandr Ratushniak, CC BY-SA 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons. The use of this image does not indicate endorsement by the licensor.
Harry Baumgarten previously served as Legislative Director and Counsel to Members of the House of Representatives. He holds Juris Doctor and Master of Public Policy degrees from Georgetown University and a Bachelor of Arts, cum laude, from the George Washington University. Harry is a Member of the Supreme Court Bar, the Bar of the Second Circuit Court of Appeals, and the New York State Bar. The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily represent those of any other party.