When a 5.9 magnitude earthquake hit the east coast in August, the Washington Post collected some of the best tweets posted in the aftermath. On top of its list was “I think Chris Christie just jumped into the race” But still, over a month later, people continued to wonder: could the New Jersey Governor’s candidature really have a seismic impact on the battle for the Republican nomination? After his announcement yesterday that he will definitely not run in 2012, we will not get to find out.
Earlier in the year, Christie had already publicly ruled out challenging President Obama. But as the race for the Republican nomination intensified with no clear leader in the field, the speculation continued. For months, Christie was courted by influential Republican donors and power-brokers alike, many of whom felt that they were not fully represented in the line-up of declared candidates. For them, the New Jersey Governor had the best shot at winning back the White House next year.
When Christie spoke last week at the Reagan Library in California he only brought more attention to his possible candidature for the GOP nomination for Presidency. Though he refused to say outright whether he would or would not run, his speech – in which he dubbed President Obama a “bystander in the Oval Office” – did little to rule out a bid. However one week later he officially announced that he will not challenge next year, saying 2012 is “not my time”. He cited his commitment to New Jersey (where he was first elected governor less than 2 years ago) as his main reason not to run. But the door appears to be left ajar for 2016.
If he had decided to run, Christie would have needed to move quickly. Florida and South Carolina’s decisions to bring their primaries forward to the end of January mean that the Iowa caucuses are likely to take place early in the New Year. By then, Christie would have needed to have channeled his support to create a national campaign and to mobilize operations on the ground in the early states. This though, may not have been as difficult as it may seem. Party operatives across the country were awaiting his decision and could have been willing and able to spring into action if he had decided to enter the race. The vastly different requirements to get on the ballot in each state meant that his hardest challenge at this late stage may not have been winning the support, or financing, needed, but rather navigating the hurdles required to feature in the nationwide contest.
As Christie took to the airwaves to announce his decision, Mitt Romney must have been breathing a sigh of relief. Another potential serious challenger to Romney’s route to the nomination has now ruled himself out. With Rick Perry’s support crumbling in the polls, things are looking good for the former Massachusetts governor. But he cannot afford to rest on his laurels yet; now it is over to him to ensure that the great and the good of the Republican Party are behind his Presidential bid. Much of the GOP remains unenthused by the declared candidates and Christie would have added a different dimension to the field. But whether or not this untested enthusiasm would have translated into a serious challenge for the Presidency remains to be seen. And as he has decided not to make the leap to challenge President Obama next year, it is over to Mitt Romney to lead the charge to regain the White House for the Republicans. Otherwise the GOP may have to wait another four years for the earth to move again.
Established in 1995, the Georgetown Public Policy Review is the McCourt School of Public Policy’s nonpartisan, graduate student-run publication. Our mission is to provide an outlet for innovative new thinkers and established policymakers to offer perspectives on the politics and policies that shape our nation and our world.