By Amir Fouad
It wasn’t so long ago that the Arab Spring was the topic du jour on everyone’s mind. Back in February, the popular demonstrations throughout the Middle East and North Africa that sent a barrage of moving images to our TV sets and newsfeeds were as inspiring as they were surprising. More than anything, it was the uplifting fight for democracy and personal freedom that stole the hearts of the international community and eventually gained the support of an initially hesitant and equivocal United States government.
However, as spring has given way to summer and now fall, many have moved on to the next item in the 24-hour news cycle, while those in the Arab World are left with picking up the pieces of their fragile countries and economies. Against this backdrop, the Global Economy and Development division at the Brookings Institution hosted a symposium on September 23rd in Washington, DC addressing this very topic. Over the course of the event, the intersection of politics and economics – and indeed the rightful balance between the two – emerged as a recurring topic of interest and debate.
With his opening remarks, Mustapha Nabli, central bank governor of Tunisia, at once displayed a quiet pride in his country’s revolution as well as a banker’s inevitable despair in the face of global economic uncertainty. On the heels of a revolution fueled by labor demands and unemployment, which resulted in a collapse in economic growth (from 4.5% to -2%), Mr. Nabli certainly has his hands full. But he was quick to note the imprudence of implementing economic reforms during times of serious political transition, noting that the formulation of sound economic policy is hard enough in the established democracies of the West. With the first-ever free elections on the horizon and very rich political activity underway, the focus should be on creating strong political governance, the absence of which spurred revolution in the first place.
Ahmed Galal, managing director of the Economic Research Forum in Cairo, echoed Mr. Nabli’s concerns about interim governments enacting sweeping economic policy. Rather, he prescribed politics as a means to achieve economic ends. In Egypt, it was not just the jobs issue that sparked revolution, but rather the pursuit of dignity, social justice, political liberalization and the end of cronyism. Therefore, security and political consensus are paramount in the short term. Budding businesses must know that their new factories will not be beset by fire or strike. A constitution must emerge from an atmosphere of political harmony, lest people be wrongfully jailed or marginalized ten years down the road. Only then can the economic achievements that are unrealistically demanded for now be accomplished.
The discussion was rounded off with input from Gunilla Carlsson, Sweden’s minister for international development cooperation and Dirk Niebel, Germany’s minister for economic cooperation and development (the latter resorting to his native tongue in a striking display of linguistic nationalism). Ms. Carlsson focused her attention on the role of women in the region, noting that “gender equality is smart economics”. Without a doubt, how the women in the region find their footing in these embryonic democracies is of great importance, though Ms. Carlsson’s words seemed to be more based on the experiences of women in the autocratic Gulf States than to those in the post-revolution countries of North Africa. Echoing the theme for the day, Mr. Niebel concentrated on the role of governance in gaining the confidence of the private sector and creating opportunities for investment. He noted that the international community has much to offer in this realm, including educational opportunities and cost-effective efforts such as measures to ensure a free press.
In Cairo today (and likely Tunisia as well), the electricity of the Arab Spring has subsided, giving way to the stressful grind of daily life. The man at the top is gone, but the vast economic change that was never going to happen overnight has still not managed to surface. Frustration is inevitable. Nevertheless, hope and rejuvenation still fill the air, as political and entrepreneurial action – once approached with a certain degree of trepidation – is now undertaken at the drop of a hat. As the panelists last week at Brookings hammered home, the people of the region must not ignore the crucial nexus of politics and economics in their quest for a better life. Before enacting economic policies that venture too far in any one direction, attention must first be devoted to the precious egg of political reform and the gift of being able to truly start from scratch.
Established in 1995, the Georgetown Public Policy Review is the McCourt School of Public Policy’s nonpartisan, graduate student-run publication. Our mission is to provide an outlet for innovative new thinkers and established policymakers to offer perspectives on the politics and policies that shape our nation and our world.