by David Dickey-Griffith, Alex Engler and Isabel Taylor
This year, in honor of the ongoing Presidential campaign, GPPReview Online is launching a new series that looks beyond the headlines. This will be devoted to providing quality, in depth coverage of the 2012 election cycle and the policy issues surrounding it. Our goal is to make this series as timely and informed as possible and to give you (our readers) a sense of the real issues that play out behind the sensationalist soundbites that dominate the race. Our guiding assumption is that there is more to the typical campaign than meets the eye and what happens beneath the radar can often be more important than the stories the cable news channels chose to report.
Speaking of which, anyone who has been following the Presidential race knows that it’s crunch time for the prospective Republican nominees, and the field is narrowing. Tim Pawlenty is officially out of the race, and Rick Santorum might as well be. Jon Huntsman looks and sounds like some sort of Democratic plant; while Newt Gingrich is busy promoting a book he has yet to write and trying to sound like an articulate vice-president. Meanwhile, after an impressive start, Michelle Bachman appears at long last to be on the verge of losing her staring contest with the man standing just to the left of the camera. Anyone thinking she might be a plausible vice-presidential candidate might want to read this and reconsider.
In short, notwithstanding a last minute challenge from the likes of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, the conventional wisdom suggests that this is a two horse race. Mitt Romney is the establishment choice, or would be if there were an establishment capable of choosing him; while Rick Perry is the embodiment of the new republicanism: a granite-jawed quasi-libertarian who either is or is not ready to renegotiate the New Deal depending on how you phrase the question.
Last Thursday’s debate featured the usual wrangling between the two, with Romney hitting Perry for his stances on Social Security and immigration and Perry hitting Romney for his record on healthcare and for being Mitt Romney. As in the two prior debates, Romney looked to be the sharper of the two candidates. It’s a fair bet that Obama’s advisers are rooting against Romney, but for now Perry remains the vulnerable front-runner.
And the President and his campaign staff should be concerned. He remains saddled with approval ratings in the low 40s and an economy that shows no sign whatsoever of righting itself. The most worrying thing may be that given the economic fundamentals, he may actually be over-performing in the polls. But no president has ever been reelected with an approval rating below 48% so it may not matter anyway.
Of course, the Presidency is hardly the only game in town. Come next November, there will also be thirty-three senate races and five-hundred and thirty-five house contests on the ballot, and it’s still anyone’s guess who has the upper hand in the struggle for Capitol Hill. Just a week ago, Republicans won two key special elections in the House; yet lead only in conservative-leaning Rasmussen’s generic House poll, and only then within the margin of error. In addition, Democrats will have many opportunities for pick-ups, given the politically perilous votes taken by many freshman tea-partiers in historically swing districts in 2010.
Meanwhile, the math in the Senate strongly favors a take-over by the Republicans who are defending far fewer seats this cycle. But nothing is certain and, as usual, local factors will undoubtedly come into play. In Massachusetts, for example, Democrats (disappointed with a wide field of mediocre candidates) have recruited a Grade A challenger in Elizabeth Warren. The Harvard consumer finance advocate may very well push incumbent Scott Brown from his perch next November after passing him for the first time in the polls this week.
In other words: Anything is possible. The next fourteen months will undoubtedly confound our best efforts at prognostication, but that won’t stop us from trying! Now, without further ado, we invite you to sit back, relax, and enjoy the greatest show on earth – campaign season in America!
Established in 1995, the Georgetown Public Policy Review is the McCourt School of Public Policy’s nonpartisan, graduate student-run publication. Our mission is to provide an outlet for innovative new thinkers and established policymakers to offer perspectives on the politics and policies that shape our nation and our world.